I don’t care for people who criticize the sport they’re watching by complaining about “the old days,” or how the game was played in “their day.” This goes for the average fan, but most noticeably the commentators. Since commentators are typically former players, there’s going to be a sprinkling of reminiscing in their observations, and that’s great. It adds flavor. But lamenting about how the game has changed is just annoying. Especially baseball, since its history is so long and the changes in the game have been glacial.
Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling form the color commentating dynamic duo for the NY Mets and with Gary Cohen calling the game, they make for an interesting and enjoyable fan experience. Keith in particular bemoans the state of the game, with a frequent “that’s how it is in today’s game Gary,” featured in basically every game. Since I’m naturally put off by the complaint, I think I just tuned out the points he was making. It wasn’t until John Smoltz made similar observations during a weekly Baseball in America broadcast of a Mets game that it finally hit me. The game has in fact changed, rather dramatically, and not for the better.
I had noticed a seeming increase in strikeouts this season, but I didn’t know why. I then noticed a constant “shifting” of the infielders, something that used to be reserved for dead pull hitters, and unusually short outings by starting pitchers. But none of it clicked for me until Smoltz pointed it out clearly during one game. Yes, Keith had complained about “launch angle” all season, but he never articulated precisely what it was he was complaining about. I did some research.
Improved technology has allowed the analysis of the physics involved in hitting home runs. If a ball is struck at a certain angle, i.e. launch angle off the bat, at a certain velocity, the ball is essentially guaranteed to leave the ballpark for a home run under normal weather conditions. This has led hitters to alter their swings to try to hit the ball with that particular angle, and to swing as hard as possible, or more accurately, with as much bat speed as they can muster, to try to hit the ball out of the yard. Baseball isn’t just about hitting home runs of course, but the home run is arguably the most important swing of the bat because it puts a run on the board, and the team with the most runs wins. A player who hits more home runs will likely get paid a lot more, so the incentive to get that launch angle right is pretty strong.
Additionally, statistics show that ground balls are outs more often than fly balls are. Especially with teams shifting the infield around, which I’ll touch on more in a moment. The end result of this specific attempt to hit more home runs has been more strikeouts, which means less balls hit in play during a game, which leads to less activity in general and a duller game. Hitters no longer have a “two strike approach” at the plate, where they choke up on the bat and take shorter, quicker swings to try to put the ball in play. They’ll still take home run cuts with two strikes, stranding runners at second or third base, when a single to right would likely have driven them both in.
The exponentially improved technology available to all teams now also allows them to computer simulate essentially every pitch to every hitter if they wanted to, and determine, statistically speaking, the most probable outcome of each play. They can position their fielders literally every pitch, and if the pitcher executes on location, more often than not, the hitter will hit into the shift. Again, less runners on base, so less game play and a duller game.
Base stealing was once an exciting part of the game, and is now a rarity. If the odds are against successfully stealing a base, managers are leery of attempting it. Same goes for hit and run plays, sacrifice bunts, or trying to hit the ball the other way to move runners. The technology has essentially turned baseball into a long night of Blackjack played with Basic Strategy. You don’t use hunches, instincts or take risks. You make each play the way the simulations show you are most likely to be successful over time. In baseball, this leads to some odd game scenarios where the entire side of the field is left open, making one almost scream out for the hitter to just slap or bunt the ball into the open field and get an easy single. But it doesn’t happen, because that’s not the statistically advantageous play. You want your hitter to hit to his strength because if he’s successful, the ball may leave the yard. The shifting infields have often led to missed double plays because the fielders are out of position, but it seems the teams will take that because in the long run, it’ll work out in their favor. But for the fan, a 4-6-3 double play in particular, can lead to some spectacular game play. Not to roll the 6-4-3 under the bus, as it’s also a pretty play, but this fan loves the aesthetic beauty of the 4-6-3.
I don’t really know what to make of this shift in strategy in the only sport that has held my interest and my love for the entirety of my life. My eyes have been opened, and once seen, a thing is difficult to unsee. The game isn’t as good as it once was, and while it pains me to say it, it just appears that that’s how it is in today’s game.
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