The NY Mets went into the 9th inning of their second game against the Washington Nationals on September 3, 2019 up 10-4. They had exploded for late inning runs, turning a close game into a blowout and all they had to do was get 3 more outs. I didn’t know this at the time, but statistically, they had a 99.7% likelihood of winning the game. What I did know, was that with the win securely in hand, I turned down the volume so I could watch some YouTube videos that had caught my eye. I continued watching the game as I multi-screened.
I noticed that Paul Sewalt was giving up some hits and I saw a few runs score. I threw my hands up in a “what gives” kind of motion, but still felt confident in the W with 1 out in the 9th. When Mickey Calloway came out to replace Sewalt, I paused YouTube and returned my attention to the game. It didn’t take long until the bases were loaded up with Nats and Mickey again went to the mound to bring in the inconsistent, yet temptingly promising closer Edwin Diaz. It’s just hard to imagine that a guy who throws an electric 99 MPH fastball that seems to move around like a slippery eel and a hard slider to complement it, would have any trouble getting a couple of outs.
But long time Nat Ryan Zimmerman, fresh off the newly rebranded Disabled List promptly delivered a scorching pinch hit double and the Mets lead was now “only” 2 runs. I was standing in the living room watching it unfold, could feel the pressure on Diaz and sense the buzz in the stadium as the catcher Kurt Suzuki came up and battled Diaz for a 9-pitch At Bat that culminated in the staticically ridiculous 7-run 9th inning come from behind victory that crushed the hearts of Mets fans everywhere.
Although at the time, and honestly for much of this morning, I felt that loss signaled the end of the remote possibility of the Mets sneaking into the Wild Card spot, they went out today and beat the Nationals 8-4, taking two of three to win the series, and the soul-crushing defeat seems like nothing more than a 1-run loss. An anomaly.
It’s the oddity like this that helps elucidate that even the most unlikely event, given enough opportunities, can still occur. Like the possibility of life forming on the planet Earth from just basic chemistry. It seems so unlikely, that for millennia people have refused to believe it. To this day people think there must have been some magical being responsible for life because the likelihood of chemical reactions bringing about life from non-life seems too remote. Like losing a ballgame when 99.7% of the time, you would win.
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