As the COVID-19 Pandemic rages on, putting my small adopted home state of South Carolina into the national news on a regular basis, I’ve come to realize I’m mentally and emotionally ideally wired to survive.
I’m introverted by nature, avoiding crowds whenever possible and uncomfortable in them when I have to be there. I don’t particularly care for meeting new people, I hate parties and most days, even when totally bored, I literally can’t think of anything I’d like to do. So stay at home orders and closed businesses don’t phase me in the least.
I also have the ability to consume and process large amounts of information, learning new material until I feel comfortable with at least a basic level of understanding. I’ve become a coronavirus junkie; consuming all manner of information via YouTube videos, podcasts and articles. I am able to sift through the plethora of communication, determine the best evidence available and use a type of Bayesian philosophy to make common sense plans based on that best available evidence.
I’ve often been confused by the behavior of my fellow humans, but perhaps never more so than now. When the pandemic first began, naturally there was plenty of fear and people stayed home as instructed and took basic precautionary measures as they watched TV and tried to keep themselves safe. As quarantine fatigue set it, and the competing political messages became more vocal and more vehement, people have started to celebrate the end of lock downs and reopening of their favorite watering holes. People have excitedly talked about being able to go back to the gym, or to a restaurant or the beach and parks. Ironically, they are excited to resume pre-pandemic life just as it has gotten more dangerous to do so. As new cases rise, hospitalizations and deaths increase, people have disregarded all the same precautions they embraced at the outset, when arguably it was less important since the probabilities of encountering infected people were lower than they are now.
Today for example, South Carolina marked a record-setting day in new cases, one of several such records in the last week. 16 restaurants in the Charleston area have reported cases of employees testing positive for COVID-19, yet the citizenry shrugs it all off. Even the most basic precautions of keeping your distance and wearing a face mask in public have been tossed away. Meanwhile, I have spent close to $100 on different types of masks, have insisted my clients wear them when we meet, and I won’t let anyone anywhere near me. Six feet hardly seems far enough for me; after all an unexpected cough or sneeze will spray viral bombs over 20′.
Herd immunity is often thrown about as the answer to the problem, but with a virus as infectious as CoV-2 we’d need 70% of the population to have been infected (or effectively vaccinated) to get there, and right now we don’t know for certain if after infection, one is immune to subsequent infections and if so, for how long. With 328,000,000 people in the US, that means we’d need roughly 230,000,000 to get infected to create a reasonable chance at a successful herd immunity. With a 1% fatality rate (and it may well be slightly higher than that), we’re looking at a staggering, unconscionable 2,300,000 dead Americans to reach possible herd immunity. Let that sink in for a bit. An effective vaccine is well off in the distant future, and then we’d have to combat the anti-vaxxers among us who will refuse it, thus keeping us from stamping this thing out with herd immunity.
For me, this all means taking the necessary precautions to keep myself from contracting the disease, and planning and fully expecting to do so for a very long time:
- Stay home as much as possible? Check.
- Wear a mask in public? Check.
- Practice safe, physical distancing? Check.
- Avoid large gatherings, especially indoors? With pleasure. Check and check.
I continue to share information as I get it that may aid my fellow humans to gain new perspective; to perhaps move them from the reckless to the cautious. I try not to harp on my adult kids, but I periodically give gentle reminders to take care of themselves. I’d love to say we’re all in this together, and by “we” I mean humanity. But humanity seems to be unreasonably uncooperative to try to prevent natural selection from taking its cruel and merciless course.Ā
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