With 8 days to go, I’ve put my final stamp of approval on the electoral map for the 2020 General Election. I feel pretty confident of this result, and if anything, I’ve underestimated Joe Biden’s likely victory.
My prediction is based mostly on polling, but not entirely. I’ve also considered the following:
- More people have contributed money to Joe Biden than Donald Trump. That money is coming from people who used to be solidly Republican donors: affluent, white, well educated Americans.
- Donald Trump’s favorability ratings are a net negative in every single battleground state. People do not see him in a positive light. Those same states show a net positive favorability rating for Joe Biden.
- Donald Trump’s approval ratings are under 50% in every single battleground state.
- The number 1 issue of importance to Americans in every battle ground state is the COVID-19 Pandemic, and Donald Trump’s leadership in this critical area has been an unmitigated failure.
With that in mind, I put states like Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania in Biden’s column, even though Florida and North Carolina’s polling lead has narrowed recently to around 3 points. Combined with the negative approval, the continued explosion of COVID-19 and the favorable view of Biden, I think both FL and NC go blue. I think I’m being relatively conservative in my prediction as I’m giving Trump Iowa, Ohio, Georgia and Texas, even though all of those states are basically polling as toss-ups.
I think it’s important for people who fear a repeat of 2016, where the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin and Michigan stunned the world by putting Trump over the top, to remember that it was by the slimmest of margins. Between those two states, 33,452 more people voted for Trump than Clinton. However as of today, Joe Biden leads in Michigan by 8 percentage points. Over 4.5 million people voted in Michigan in 2016, so even if turnout doesn’t increase, the polls suggest Biden will get 360,000 more votes than Trump. In Wisconsin, Biden leads by 7 percentage points. In 2016, 2.8 million people voted in Wisconsin. Even if turnout doesn’t increase, the polls suggest Biden will get almost 200,000 more votes than Trump in Wisconsin.
I’m still anxious about the election, mostly because of the aggressive voter suppression efforts the Republican Party is actively engaging in. Getting a ton of absentee and mail in ballots tossed somehow could have a dramatic impact on the election. Closing polling places where Republicans control the state’s election apparatus to reduce turnout as people tire from waiting in line would impact the election. There are ongoing lawsuits in states all over the country to limit mail in ballots, limit early voting, limit curbside voting, limit drop boxes. It’s disgraceful, but the sad fact is that Republicans want less people to vote. When more people vote, they lose. It’s that simple.
To my tens of millions of fellow early voters, I applaud you for your participation, your enthusiasm and your willingness to be heard. I know you all didn’t vote for Biden, but the evidence suggests more of you did than didn’t.
Joe's Blog 